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Combating AI-Powered Fraud with Independent Benchmarking

Arbitra Security Research Team
12/20/2024
10 min read
$3.5B → $10B
Fraud losses 2020-2023
41.9%
Annual growth rate
$40B
Projected losses by 2027

The AI-Powered Fraud Explosion

As generative AI advances, so does the threat landscape facing identity verification (IDV) systems. In the U.S. alone, fraud losses have surged from $3.5 billion in 2020 to over $10 billion in 2023, growing at a staggering 41.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Projections indicate that losses could exceed $12 billion in 2024.

But the bigger storm is brewing in banking fraud, where AI-driven techniques are expected to push global losses to $40 billion by 2027, up from $12.3 billion in 2023. This isn't just about stolen credit cards anymore—we're facing sophisticated deepfakes, AI-generated synthetic identities, and automated attack frameworks that can bypass traditional security measures at scale.

Fraud Loss Growth Trajectory

Historical Growth (2020-2023)

2020
$3.5B
2021
$5.8B
2022
$8.2B
2023
$10.0B

Projected Growth (2024-2027)

2024
$12B
2025
$22B
2026
$32B
2027
$40B

The Problem with Self-Reported Security

Despite these escalating threats, many IDV vendors continue to rely on internal test environments or marketing claims, often underestimating how vulnerable their systems are to today's real-world fraud tactics. Traditional vendor evaluations focus on controlled demo environments that don't reflect the chaos of actual fraud attacks.

Reality Check: A vendor's internal testing might show 99.5% accuracy against known attack vectors, but how do they perform against novel deepfakes, synthetic document generation, or coordinated multi-vector attacks that criminals are using today?

Enter Independent Benchmarking

That's where Arbitra comes in. We deliver independent benchmarking and penetration testing services that simulate sophisticated fraud attacks—including deepfakes, AI-generated identities, workflow manipulation, and SDK injection attacks. Using a combination of real and synthetic identities, our tests evaluate a vendor's actual ability to detect fraud under pressure, not just ideal conditions.

IDV Vendor Fraud Detection Capabilities

Average performance across major IDV vendors tested by Arbitra (2024)

RFP Evaluation Metrics

Deepfake Detection7/10
Document Fraud Prevention8/10
Synthetic Identity Detection6/10
Workflow Manipulation5/10
SDK Injection Protection4/10

Our Testing Methodology

Arbitra's Comprehensive Fraud Testing Framework

Deepfake Detection - Advanced AI-generated face swaps and voice synthesis attacks
Synthetic Identity Testing - AI-created personas with fabricated documents and biometrics
Document Fraud Simulation - Sophisticated forgeries using generative AI techniques
Workflow Manipulation - Attacks targeting the verification process flow and logic
SDK Injection Testing - Runtime manipulation and bypass attempts
Multi-Vector Attacks - Coordinated attacks combining multiple fraud techniques

Traditional Vendor Testing

  • Self-reported accuracy metrics
  • Controlled demo environments
  • Limited attack vector coverage
  • No real-world fraud simulation
  • Marketing-driven claims

Arbitra Independent Testing

  • Third-party verified results
  • Real-world attack simulations
  • Comprehensive fraud vector testing
  • AI-powered attack generation
  • Transparent, data-driven insights

Why Independent Testing Matters

🎯 The Arbitra Advantage

Objective Analysis

No vendor relationships or bias—just pure, data-driven security assessment

Real-World Attacks

Testing against actual fraud techniques used by criminals today

Comprehensive Coverage

Multi-vector testing across all major fraud categories and attack types

Actionable Insights

Detailed reports with specific recommendations for security improvements

The Stakes Have Never Been Higher

This kind of benchmarking isn't just helpful—it's essential. As AI-driven fraud evolves, security teams and compliance leaders can no longer rely on outdated RFPs or glossy demo videos. They need objective, transparent, and data-rich insights that show how vendors perform in the wild.

The financial services industry is particularly vulnerable. Banks and fintech companies processing millions of identity verifications daily need solutions that can withstand the most sophisticated attacks. A single breach or successful fraud campaign can result in millions in losses and irreparable reputation damage.

Ready to Test Your Defenses?

Don't wait for fraudsters to find your vulnerabilities. Get independent, comprehensive testing that shows how your IDV solution performs against real-world AI-powered attacks.

The Bottom Line

Arbitra exists to close the gap between vendor claims and reality—so you can deploy IDV solutions you can trust before the fraud gets smarter. In a world where AI-powered attacks are growing exponentially, independent benchmarking isn't just a nice-to-have—it's your first line of defense.

The question isn't whether AI-powered fraud will target your business.

The question is: Will your IDV solution be ready?

Sources

• Federal Trade Commission Consumer Sentinel Network Data Book 2023
• Javelin Strategy & Research Identity Fraud Study 2024
• Association of Certified Fraud Examiners Global Fraud Study
• Arbitra Independent IDV Security Assessments 2024
• NIST Cybersecurity Framework and AI Risk Management

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